Iranian Regime Futures — Scenario Explorer

A visual sandbox for thinking in three trajectories: regime change, regime yield, or regime camouflage. Adjust assumptions to see how the scenario balance shifts.

Heuristic visualization — not a forecast.Assumptions drive outputs
Assumptions
Slide to encode your reading of the situation.
Security Cohesion
70
LowHigh
Clerical / Elite Legitimacy
55
LowHigh
Economic Resilience
45
LowHigh
External Escalation
60
LowHigh
Sanctions / Isolation
65
LowHigh
Mediation Channels
55
LowHigh
Cohesion
Moderate70
Legitimacy
Moderate55
Economic
Low45
Escalation
Moderate60
Pressure
Moderate65
Mediation
Moderate55
Scenario Weights
Relative balance implied by your assumptions.
Outcome Profile
Compare scenario characteristics (stability, negotiation likelihood, rearm potential, etc.).
Scenario Brief
Switch focus to see markers and what to watch.
C) Regime Camouflage
Surface de-escalation + selective compliance while rebuilding capacity over time.
Weight: 38.6%
Markers
  • Partial / temporary deals
  • Quiet rearmament
  • Proxy activity reduced but persistent
  • Messaging aimed at time-buying
What to watch
  • Ambiguous verification
  • Dual-use procurement
  • R&D relocation / dispersal
  • 'Compliance' paired with new doctrine
Interpretive note

Use this to structure thinking: leadership decapitation can reduce coordination and increase uncertainty, but it does not automatically imply collapse. Higher cohesion tends to support survival paths (yield or camouflage), while low cohesion + high escalation / pressure pushes toward systemic change.

Built for scenario reasoning. Modify the heuristic weights in computeScenario() to fit your framework.